Afghanistan, total withdrawal of USA:

the White House speaks of “option zero”

NEW YORK – Complete withdrawal from Afghanistan: after 2014, not a single US soldier would remain even in training and support for local forces. For the first time Barack Obama faces this “zero option”. A much more radical solution than those assumed so far. Certainly, it is a choice that would sound like a disavowal for the “party of generals”, which has always taken for granted the permanence of an American contingent, albeit limited.

A few days before the summit between Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, it is the deputy national security adviser, Ben Rhodes, who has “betrayed” his boss’s intentions. An evidently leaked news leak. It is part of an internal political game, with which the White House sends dissuasive signals to the Pentagon where the military leaders would aim to keep 15,000 soldiers in Afghanistan even after the deadline for the withdrawal, set by Obama in 2014.

Rhodes made it clear: “We are considering the zero option”. The model in this case would be Iraq, where the Obama administration has decided to leave a robust settlement, but all civil and under the jurisdiction of the State Department, not the Pentagon. The two considerations that will guide Obama’s choice, explained Rhodes, are the goal of guaranteeing the self-sufficiency of the Afghan forces, and therefore of preventing that country from reverting to being an Al Qaeda sanctuary from which attacks against America start and its allies.

An important element of the Iraqi precedent must be remembered: Obama decided the total withdrawal of US troops also because in the negotiations with the Baghdad government on the “after” he did not obtain sufficient guarantees on a delicate issue, the immunity of the American military towards local justice. The same problem arises in Afghanistan, perhaps even in more critical terms, given the very harsh polemics against the “errors” and the “collateral victims” (civil) caused by drone attacks against the Taliban.

More generally, the already scarce trust of the White House towards Karzai has been further worn down by the escalation of the “friendly fire” episodes: the last American victims have fallen due to attacks perpetrated by Afghan soldiers of the regular army, “ally”. The appearance of the zero option obviously concerns the whole coalition that participates in operations in Afghanistan, even if other countries of the Atlantic Alliance have already anticipated on their own the timing of a disengagement.

(09 January 2013)