«BEIJING does not have the tools to act, they are obviously in great difficulty. I don’t know how it will go, but I know that at the moment China needs to move with diplomacy. Because the elections in Taiwan are not far away and because the APEC summit will be at home in November ». Richard McGregor knows the Chinese Communist Party well, his “The Party” in 2010 explained many secrets. On the Hong Kong protest, he sees more difficulties than solutions. And he states: “They would certainly not be happy to repeat Tienanmen’s mistake”.
McGregor, what tools are missing?
“You would need a good politician, able to go and talk to young people and convince them to go home even without making major concessions. But there is not”.
How will it go now, with the anniversary of the birth of the People’s Republic of China at the gates, on October 1st?
“Perhaps the students will come to get rid of Chun-ying, but certainly in Beijing they are not used to compromises.”
We are 25 years old from Tienanmen, do you think the Party is thinking about it?
“Sure. Even if they never apologized for what they did, they know it was a big mistake. ”
Will they come to a direct intervention?
“They are clearly debating on the subject, undecided. At the beginning of 2016 there will be elections in Taiwan, where they are already half favorable to independence from China. Moreover, in 40 days in Beijing there is the meeting of the 21 leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The Chinese are preparing it with gestures of pacification also towards Japan. They don’t need tensions ».
Do you think the Hong Kong protests will arrive in China?
“If there is violence against those in the streets, it is possible. Otherwise, I don’t think so. ”
Are we faced with an example of how capitalism alone does not create democracy?
“This is the case for now, but the young generations are growing. It is too early to say.”